Predicted Time 4 Miler

Winchester, VA, February 23, 2008

Race Report

Ice played a significant role at the sixth running of the SVR Predicted Time 4 Miler, held on Saturday 23 February 2008 at the Stonebrook Racquet & Fitness Club outside of Winchester, VA. Although a winter storm forecasted for the day before the race turned out to be a dud (nice job, Bob Ryan!), the cold and misty conditions on race morning may have dampened the turnout, with just fifty-six runners showing up to tackle the rolling four mile out-and-back course. And that course had to be adjusted at the last minute upon the unexpected discovery of patches of clear ice in the second and third miles. Race director Terry Leckie decided it would be safest to skip that section of the course entirely and switch to a double out-and-back route, having runners turn around twice at the original course's one mile mark. The decision, though a smart one, resulted in scattered grumbling from participants, as the new truncated route was perceived as being much hillier than the original. (In truth, it was not significantly hillier, with an estimated 390 vertical feet of climb compared to the original course's 375 feet.)

Given the "predicted time" theme, nobody knew exactly how fast they were running on those hills, since participants were not permitted to wear watches during the race. Prior to the race, each runner had recorded a guess as to their eventual finish time, and inexpensive prizes would be given to those whose predictions came the closest to their actual finish times. This year's top prognosticator turned out to be longtime SVR member Jim Shaughnessy, 47, whose final time of 29:17 was just two seconds slower than his prediction. 10-year-old Henry Griffin was second best, missing his guess by five seconds with his 35:37 performance. Michael Legge, 29, was off by seven seconds (32:23), and Mike Triantafillou, 48, came within eight seconds (35:08). All in all, it wasn't the best year for predictions, perhaps due to fear of the altered course. Less than half of this year's participants finished within a minute of their pre-race predictions, and only ten runners got within twenty seconds.

Runners were also competing against each other in the standard manner, of course, and standings points were at stake in the Shenandoah Valley Runners' 2007-2008 Winter Series. This was the seventh race in the eight race series, and the women's competition definitely had series implications. 16-year-old Alyssa Meadows of Martinsburg put forth a strong effort to win her first-ever Winter Series race, finishing in 31:02 and vaulting from sixth to third in the series standings. A short ways back, 2005 race winner Michelle VanHorn trailed Winchester's Tracey Black by only a few steps with a mile to go, but Black, 46, pulled away and finished second in 31:33. Vicky Krossman, 38, also reeled in VanHorn in the final mile, snatching away third place with a 31:46 performance. But VanHorn, 26, was able to hold off 29-year-old Katie Steadman to take fourth in 31:52, and this was good enough to move VanHorn into the top spot in the series standings, two points up on Krossman. Steadman's 31:56 finish also bumped her up into the series' top five.

The men's race was dominated by 45-year-old Mark Stickley (who inexplicably listed himself as 46 on his finish card), returning to the Predicted Time 4 Miler for the first time since similarly dominating the 2003 and 2004 races. Although finishing a minute off his event record, Stickley had nobody to push him in his 22:46 performance. There was a three-way battle for second, however, between the three runners at the top of the men's Winter Series standings. Last year's Predicted Time race saw this same trio-- 25-year-old Charles Bowles, 33-year-old Karsten Brown, and 41-year-old Brad Rippey-- duking it out for the overall win, and the three finished in the same order this year. Bowles and Brown pulled away from Rippey in the second mile, then Bowles surged ahead on the climb to the three mile mark and kept his foot on the gas from there, taking second place in 24:10. A fatigued Brown was able to fend off Rippey for third, 24:31 to 24:42. With his finish, Brown mathematically clinched the overall Winter Series win, his first since topping the '97-'98 series. Bowles, meanwhile, was able to leap over Rippey into second place in the standings, with a one-point advantage going into the final race on 1 March.

As usual, the race's finish cards contained the traditional Academy Awards poll question, asking runners to forecast the "Best Picture" winner at the following day's Oscars. Juno seemed to be the consensus pick, with almost a quarter of the participants selecting the teen pregnancy comedy. But the Oscar went to the Coen brothers' No Country For Old Men, chosen by eight runners: Dave Black, Lance Bunch, Paul Grosz, Bob Gurtler, Michael Legge, Sean Marshall, and Joel & Connie McKenzie. Atonement and There Will Be Blood were each chosen by five participants, while Michael Clayton only got three nods. A number of runners were overheard commenting, "I haven't seen any of these movies!" There were also a few write-in votes, some serious (Charlie Wilson's War, Ratatouille), some not-so-serious (Norbit, Dr. Strangelove), and some not even films ("American Gladiators", "Elmo Eats Ice Cream").

Despite being short on volunteers, race director Terry Leckie pulled off another fine event, aided this year by Nancy Bullock, Ray Legge, and Karsten Brown. Thanks are also owed to the Stonebrook Racquet & Fitness Club for their continued hospitality and patience. We predict that the Predicted Time 4 Miler could once again return to Stonebrook on Saturday 28 February 2009... Check in with the Shenandoah Valley Runners next fall to find out if our prediction comes true!