Predicted Time 4 Miler

Winchester, VA, February 26, 2005

Race Report

Pre-race watch check

The 2004-2005 Shenandoah Valley Runners Winter Series began winding down on Saturday 26 February 2005 with the Predicted Time 4 Miler, the seventh and penultimate race in the series. Held for the third year at the Stonebrook Racquet and Fitness Club just outside of Winchester, the race was marked this year by a chilly 34 degree breeze and the usual relentlessly rolling hills on the out-and-back course through the Stonebrook Farms community. Perhaps the course's reputation contributed to the fifty-three runner turnout-- the second lowest turnout of this year's series and the lowest turnout at any of the SVR's Predicted Time races since 1998. (The event has often seen lower-than-average crowds, though-- which is perplexing given the large number of runners who live in and around Winchester!)

This was, of course, a 'predicted time' event, meaning that the runners got to try and predict just how fast they'd be able to cover the four mile course. Runners recorded their guesses when they registered for the race, and then everyone had to run the race without the assistance of watches or other timing devices. Those whose final times came the closest to their pre-race predictions got to grab a low-budget prize off our prize table. After all the numbers were crunched, 23-year-old Michelle VanHorn and 66-year-old Doug Morris emerged as this year's top prognosticators. Both predicted their times exactly! They're only the third and fourth runners to do so in the past six editions of the event. Neal Riemenschneider, 50, also fared well, overshooting his predicted time by just one second, while Ian Morris, 26, missed by three seconds and Michael Triantafillou, 45, missed by six.

As for the race itself, Michelle VanHorn found success there too, easily defeating the fifteen other female participants with a time of 28:45. Marsha Soergel, 23, took second place in 30:08, with Stonebrook fitness instructor Krista Farris, 35, taking third in 30:34. Mary Smith, 22, finished fourth in 31:48, followed by Vicky Krossman, 35, a little over a minute and a half later. 52-year-old Nancy Specht, one of only four people to have run all of the SVR's last six Predicted Time races, was the top female finisher over the age of 40, crossing the line in 36:49. Also participating was birthday girl Colleen Snyder, running her first race as a 49-year-old!

On the men's side, Robbie Olsen locked up the top place in the men's Winter Series standings with his third overall victory of the year. The 21-year-old Strasburg resident won the race handily in 23:17, with runner-up Brad Rippey left to watch from afar. Rippey, 38, kept himself ahead of the ever-improving Raymond Bollock, 39, to earn second in 23:55. Bollock improved on his 2004 Predicted Time 4 Miler performance by over a minute and a half to finish third in 24:10. The finish line volunteer crew then had to wait an eternity before fourth place finisher Karsten Brown, 30, moseyed across the line in 25:46. 47-year-old Mike Meadows (26:13) and 60-year-old Patrick Griffith (26:21) were the top Masters men.

As was done at last year's Predicted Time 4 Miler, a poll question was included on the race's finish cards, asking runners to predict which movie would win the Oscar for Best Picture at the following day's Academy Awards ceremony. Unlike last year, however, the participants failed to pick the right movie this time! The biopic 'Ray' wound up as the Predicted Time 4 Miler's official choice, getting the most votes with twelve. But the Oscar went to Clint Eastwood's 'Million Dollar Baby', chosen by ten runners. Martin Scorsese's 'The Aviator' picked up nine votes, while 'Finding Neverland' and 'Sideways' were considerably less popular.

Many thanks to race director Terry Leckie for putting together another fine Predicted Time 4 Miler! Thanks as well to his crew of invaluable volunteers, including Kelly Stallard, Meesh Mitchell, Raylene Scott, Nancy Bullock, Jason Page, Alexander Snyder, Patrick Farris, Neal Riemenschneider, and results guy Karsten Brown. And a big thank-you to the good people of the Stonebrook Racquet and Fitness Club for letting the SVR hold the race at their fine facility for a third year! (If you're interested in joining Stonebrook, give 'em a call at 540-662-7546.)