| Author |
Topic: Lance Armstrong's NY Marathon prediction |
Eric Cahill
Member |
 posted Sep-21-2006 10:33 AM
   
So I was reading on Yahoo News today an AP article about Lance Armstrong's preparations for the NY Marathon in 6 weeks. He apparently said he thinks he can come within an hour of the winner, and has done 6 1/2 minute miles in training. Yet later in the article he claims that his longest run to date has been 13 miles. Based on last years times, his prediction would put him in at better than 3:10. I'm a big fan of Armstrong and loved following his cycling exploits from way back before the cancer, but I just don't see how this is possible. He's an incredibly gifted athlete, and has demonstrated alot of physical and mental toughness over the years, but I just can't see that his training is going to do it for him. There is roughly 6 weeks to go, and so in about 3 weeks, 4 at the most, he'll want to start tapering. Maybe some of the world class athletes don't need to taper quite like the average joe runner, but he's a world class athlete on the bike and not on his feet. He mentioned in the article how hard the pounding was on his legs as compared to cycling. Mental toughness or not, I wonder if his legs will put up with 26 miles of pounding. Thoughts??? E. Cahill, Louisville KY
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Tchuck
Cool Runner |
posted Sep-21-2006 10:55 AM
I think he is being modest and comically saying "I better think about running a longer run than 13 miles". He will be ready but certainly not at peak running fitness.I think he will finish just under 3 hours. 2:56.50 ------------------
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92heelgrad
Cool Runner |
posted Sep-21-2006 11:00 AM
http://msn.foxsports.com/other/story/5986560?FSO1&ATT=HMAI saw that article as well. If it was anybody but Lance Armstrong, genetic freak, I would say there is no way he could pull it off. If I adopted his approach I am sure I would crash and burn around the 18 mile mark. Of course the guy is supremely fit and able to tolerate sustained effort levels that most people are just incapable of tolerating. His heart is so strong he probably has to run at a pretty strong pace before he is in danger of getting out of his aerobic zone. I am a little disappointed he didn't train more specifically for the race though. I was really curious about how fast he could run the marathon and I assumed he would bring the same level of dedication he brought to cycling.
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PacerChris
Cool Runner |
posted Sep-21-2006 11:03 AM
He's sandbagging - my guess is he'll break 3 hours.
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paulmitch
Cool Runner |
posted Sep-21-2006 11:03 AM
I take what he says with a grain of salt. If he does well, he can say I told you so. If he crashes and burns he can say well I didn't train for it properly.
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MaineRunner2001
Cool Runner |
posted Sep-21-2006 11:47 AM
from http://www.edb.utexas.edu/coyle/armstrong.php"...a recreationally active and lean male in college typically possesses a maximal oxygen uptake of 40-50 ml/kg/min and if they became couch potatoes for a few months, they would be 30-40 ml/kg/min. We estimate that if Lance were to become a couch potato, his VO2max would not decline below 60 ml/kg/min. assuming he did not become over-weight. Furthermore, if the normal college student were to train intensely for two or more years, his VO2max would not increase above 60 ml/kg/min. In other words, if Lance were to become sedentary, his cardiovascular fitness would remain at the highest level possible for a normal person. In other words, Lance would not have to train in order to be able to ride with a person with average genetic potential, even if this person trained as hard as possible for a few years." I think someone with Lance's abilities should be able to break three hours without much effort.
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Robert Wildes
Cool Runner |
posted Sep-21-2006 12:23 PM
One thing to consider is that Grete Waitz claimed to have
never run over 12 miles prior to her first marathon in New
York. She won that day and set a world record to boot.
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milkbaby
Cool Runner |
posted Sep-21-2006 12:32 PM
quote:
Originally posted by Robert Wildes:
One thing to consider is that Grete Waitz claimed to have
never run over 12 miles prior to her first marathon in New
York. She won that day and set a world record to boot.
Grete Waitz was already a good track and XC runner before she became a marathoner. I think Lance has a big aerobic engine that is too powerful for the set of wheels he's got under him right now. He probably will jog the course somewhere in the neighborhood of 3 hours +/- a few minutes. What is the course record at NYC? Around 2:08? One hour slower ain't that impressive, and maybe that was his point anyhow... that he isn't training to be competitive.
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Eric Cahill
Member |
posted Sep-21-2006 01:17 PM
I wish I could "jog" a marathon in the 3 hour range! e
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bigapplepie
Cool Runner |
posted Sep-21-2006 02:55 PM
I think he'll be surrounded by his team and by hangers on. Maybe he'll run with Karnazes who is aiming for 4 hours.
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bigapplepie
Cool Runner |
posted Sep-21-2006 03:01 PM
quote:
Originally posted by Eric Cahill:
Maybe some of the world class athletes don't need to taper quite like the average joe runner, but he's a world class athlete on the bike and not on his feet. He mentioned in the article how hard the pounding was on his legs as compared to cycling. Mental toughness or not, I wonder if his legs will put up with 26 miles of pounding. Thoughts??? E. Cahill, Louisville KY
Most world class athletes do taper just as much, if not more than, the average Joe. Apparently some Kenyans don't do any running for 3 weeks prior to a target marathon.What's all this pounding business? Who pounds?
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thereshegoes
Cool Runner |
posted Sep-21-2006 03:29 PM
Apparently none of you are up on your celebrity gossip. I know, it is very sad that I know this!Anyway, apparently Lance has been hanging out with Hollywood types all summer partying: http://www.eonline.com/Gossip/Awful/Daily2006/060814.html Just something to help the speculation along.... 
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MichiganFlyer
Cool Runner |
posted Sep-21-2006 03:33 PM
quote:
Originally posted by milkbaby:
I think Lance has a big aerobic engine that is too powerful for the set of wheels he's got under him right now. .
You think his legs are not in shape?...come on he has been cycling for thousands of miles every Summer.
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Jim24315
Cool Runner |
posted Sep-21-2006 03:58 PM
I predict 2:58 and won't be surprised if he goes faster.He's the best in the world at a sport that depends on a high level of aerobic development. Running is a different game of course and this is one reason why I'm not predicting anything close to world class marathon. However, he should be able to manage a sub-3 on minimal training and I believe he will. And if he wants to get really good at the marathon he will. Remember, the great Jack Foster was a cyclist before he took up running (2:11 marathon at age 41).
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tuscaloosarunner
Cool Runner |
posted Sep-21-2006 04:00 PM
Didn't he recently run a 5k in the 18 range?
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92heelgrad
Cool Runner |
posted Sep-21-2006 06:03 PM
Wow, I run 60-70 mpw and have a VO2 somewhere around 57. So if Lance sits around eating potato chips, and becoming one with his couch, then he might drop to a 60 VO2??? Dude is a serious genetic freak. My prediction for him is below 3 hours. I just don't see how that kind of fitness won't propel him to a sub 3 no matter how he trained. [This message has been edited by 92heelgrad (edited Sep-22-2006).]
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Paige Makarevich
Cool Runner |
posted Sep-21-2006 06:38 PM
I remember reading in his ex-wife"s(Kristin, whom apparently many dislike according to a RW post here at CR) article that Lance once said in a previous NYC marathon year, that he was going to run in the same race as her. (I think he may have said it on Letterman?/Leno?) .Kristin made a point that unlike her, having to train really hard, that he was a"athletic phenomomen(or something like that) and he could probably,"..party like a rock star(ahem), the night before" and still run it very repectably. Actually, I don't think he ever ran it. Did anyone else remember that announcement?------------------
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Johnny J
Cool Runner |
posted Sep-21-2006 07:18 PM
quote:
Originally posted by bigapplepie:
E. Cahill, Louisville KY[/b]
Most world class athletes do taper just as much, if not more than, the average Joe. Apparently some Kenyans don't do any running for 3 weeks prior to a target marathon.
[/B][/QUOTE]
Really? I've never heard this. Could you please cite your source that describes "some Kenyans" that don't do ANY running for 3 weeks prior to a target marathon? I'm serious, I'm always open to new thoughts on tapering. But somehow, I think this sounds like heresay.
Thanks.
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milkbaby
Cool Runner |
posted Sep-21-2006 11:58 PM
quote:
Originally posted by MichiganFlyer:
You think his legs are not in shape?...come on he has been cycling for thousands of miles every Summer.
Cycling is a non-impact sport, except for the times a rider crashes. Also, there is a difference in which muscles are emphasized in each sport. By all accounts, Lance is not training seriously, especially if 13 miles is the longest run he has done. Jack Foster is a story of a converted runner. He certainly did not run 2:11 his very first marathon off the bike! He trained seriously as a runner and had an excellent career. That is much different from what we are talking about here. It will be nice to see him finally run the marathon as this is one of the most played out discussions on running disscussion boards. What should be just as interesting is what kind of cycling could an ultrarunning monster like Yiannis Kouros have done in his prime? But nobody ever asks about that because there are no ultradistance events with the prominence of the Tour de France...
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laker
Cool Runner |
posted Sep-22-2006 12:18 PM
. What should be just as interesting is what kind of cycling could an ultrarunning monster like Yiannis Kouros have done in his prime? But nobody ever asks about that because there are no ultradistance events with the prominence of the Tour de France...[/B][/QUOTE]In which the winner is usually the fastest time trialer. Very fast cycling for a relatively short distance.Your analogy doesn't make sense. Now if you were to wonder how he would do in the Race Across America, that would be an interesting discussion.
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bigapplepie
Cool Runner |
posted Sep-22-2006 04:16 PM
quote:
Originally posted by Johnny J:
Really? I've never heard this. Could you please cite your source that describes "some Kenyans" that don't do ANY running for 3 weeks prior to a target marathon? I'm serious, I'm always open to new thoughts on tapering. But somehow, I think this sounds like heresay.Thanks.
I've read it many times but probably on these forums, so it could very well be hearsay. Next time I read it I'll post it. In the meanwhile I apologize.
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Johnny J
Cool Runner |
posted Sep-22-2006 04:29 PM
quote:
Originally posted by bigapplepie:
I've read it many times but probably on these forums, so it could very well be hearsay. Next time I read it I'll post it. In the meanwhile I apologize.
No need to apologize, I wasn't trying to slam you, it just sounded quite astounding to me that an elite runner wouldn't run at all for three weeks prior to a marathon. I'm just honestly curious if this is true as I'd like to know what athletes have done this and if they feel like it has improved their performance over a more conventional reduced volume, increased intensity taper over the last three weeks. I've got a marathon in two weeks, and have a 17 miler planned tomorrow so was wondering if I'm doing myself a disservice by completing that run.
And thanks for pointing out my grammatical gaffe with "heresay". I suppose I thought running training theories were somewhat of a religion in and of themselves, so this no running at all for three weeks was akin to heresy-- but alas, I just really messed it up and came up with a word that is neither the heresy used incorrectly for the context, nor the correct hearsay. Oops!
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Jim24315
Cool Runner |
posted Sep-22-2006 05:01 PM
BAP; Johnny J (and anyone else who is interested)Here's a Tinman post that I think makes good sense: "Yes! I've said for years that tapering is a relative situation. If your running high mileage for weeks, then you can taper at a higher percentage rate than someone running low mileage. It may be perfectly alright for Joe, who is running 120 miles per week, to taper to 60 miles per week during the last two weeks prior to an important 5k race. It probably not alright for Sam to taper from 60 miles to 30 miles over the last two weeks prior to an important 5k race. Think of it this way, beyond about an hour of running per day the amount of return on invested time dimishes rapidly. But, the time invested up to 60 minutes per day counts a lot! When Joe is runing 120 miles per week, close to 2 hours of running per day, cutting his mileage to half means he's still running close to an hour per day - and therefore not much aerobic capacity is lost per unit of time reduced from his schedule. When Sam goes from 60 miles to 30 miles of running per week, he's moving down from about 1 hour to 1/2 hour of running per day. Therefore, plenty of aerobic capacity is lost becuase fitness is highly related to time invested under the 1 hour limit. Tinman" I know that he uses 5k examples here, but I also know that he applies the same principal to the marathon. There are probably at least as many mistakes made by tapering too much than not enough.
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effzee
Cool Runner |
posted Sep-24-2006 04:37 PM
quote:
Originally posted by Johnny J:
I'm just honestly curious if this is true as I'd like to know what athletes have done this and if they feel like it has improved their performance over a more conventional reduced volume, increased intensity taper over the last three weeks.
fwiw, I was running with a trainer friend this morning and he went into a disertation on something along these lines. I didn't pay so much attention, he tends to ramble, but essentially, in theory, a three to four week break from the most extreme kind of training plan would put the body's recovery at exactly the optimal moment for a maximum performance. But nobody would, could or does train like that, it's just a paper theory. But you all know a heck of a lot more about these things than I do. Regarding Armstrong, his legs aren't really made for running, are they? HUGE quads aren't going to be much use in a marathon. And aren't tendons/ligaments the thing to worry about? His aren't used to the "pounding" they're getting when he runs. He might mess up strategically and hurt himself. In his position (haha) I would hire a pacer.
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elliottwatson
Member |
posted Sep-24-2006 04:45 PM
quote:
Originally posted by effzee:
fwiw, I was running with a trainer friend this morning and he went into a disertation on something along these lines. I didn't pay so much attention, he tends to ramble, but essentially, in theory, a three to four week break from the most extreme kind of training plan would put the body's recovery at exactly the optimal moment for a maximum performance. But nobody would, could or does train like that, it's just a paper theory.But you all know a heck of a lot more about these things than I do. Regarding Armstrong, his legs aren't really made for running, are they? HUGE quads aren't going to be much use in a marathon. And aren't tendons/ligaments the thing to worry about? His aren't used to the "pounding" they're getting when he runs. He might mess up strategically and hurt himself. In his position (haha) I would hire a pacer.
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